Should Dan be Fired?

It’s hard to believe the results of the past year and a half are what the Board had in mind when Hesse was hired. Subscriber losses a million+ per quarter with no end in sight, huge revenue and stock declines, employee morale at an all time low…the list goes on. And all of this while the rest of the industry has done quite well.

Clearly many of the problems pre-date Hesse’s involvement. Nevertheless, he is the man who was brought in to turn things around. So far he has failed badly. Let’s take a look back. The ad campaign featuring hiz honor was torturous. Sure, perhaps a four week campaign signaling a new direction in an effort to transition from the disastrous neon lights commercials would have been appropriate. A simple campaign featuring some of Sprint’s interesting features would have gone a long way to attract subscribers and counter the effects of the iPhone ( Sprint TV, GPS, Family Locater, Radio all would have tied in nicely with the Simply Everything plan). Instead, for more than a year, we had to watch nightly a highly paid CEO tell us how cool a cell phone is. When S did start marketing features, it poured its advertising dollars into a campaign for Direct Connect, a technology that has little or no mass appeal outside particular segmented groups. Marketing has been a huge failure for which Hesse is solely responsible.

Hesse came into office with a bang and a media campaign touting his ability to drop “nukes” (remember those nice glossies from USA Today that were passed around campus?). Besides Blue Jeans Friday, firing 8k people, and Simply Everything, Hesse’s bombing campaign had more bark than bite. The one thing Hesse is good at is lowering expectations, not only for the company but also himself. This way we are led to believe that by losing less the 4.5 million subscribers for 2009 Sprint will somehow be in good condition. And Mr. Narcissist will be the One who righted the ship.

Furthermore, while competitors are gearing up for the next wave (4G), Sprint is praying that a niche technology will offer a unique competitive advantage. Unfortunately, this aint gonna happen. Don’t take it from the Troll…just read any industry journal on the future of Wimax and LTE. In other words, when Verizon and AT&T come out with their 4G services and devices, Sprint (if it still exists) will be left in la la land.

Let’s also not forget about the indiscretions that occurred under his Hesse’s watch. From Brust’s $600k airline tab to Kathy Walkers $4 million illegitimate severance, to Keith Cowan’s million dollar payout for failing to deliver, Hesse has shown a lack of fortitude and control needed to handle the important albeit mundane problems that occur while running a business.

This is not how good leaders lead. Strong leaders put the company ahead of themselves; they offer a vision and plan for the future; and they show the integrity and spirit to lift the image of the company, build loyalty with customers, and boost morale amongst its employees. Dan has failed on all counts. It’s time for him to go.

the Troll would like to hear your thoughts. Should Dan be fired?

A Glimmer of Hope

In line with the Troll’s May 4 post, Sprint will need a drastic restructuring to avoid bankruptcy proceedings post 2010. Here is a scenario that could save the company. The Troll doesn’t believe the Dumb Cowards are capable of pulling it off because it would require decisive and creative thinking. Nevertheless, here it goes.

First, unload Clearwire stock. It may take some time due to the terms of the agreement between S and CLWR, but the sooner the better. WiMAX is not the future. It’s a niche technology and does not offer a favorable revenue stream. Sprint will need the liquidity and reduced expenses by eliminating XOHM. Make a WiMAX trophy and put it in the case with ION.

Move forward with the Erikson deal for managing the CDMA network. Outsource iDEN services to Moto. The reason for this will be clear in a minute.

Spin off Boost by making a stock offering to creditors in return for a reduction of S debt load. Creditors would be willing to accept this given the current strength of Boost. S could finally unload the iDEN network and the costs associated with it, including the outsourcing agreement with Moto. Part of the deal will include a favorable MVNO agreement with S so Nextel customers will continue to be part of the S portfolio.

With a reduced debt load, improved liquidity from the sale of CLWR stock, and reduced costs from the offloading of iDEN, Sprint will now be in a position to upgrade its network to LTE. Qualcomm is developing a duel CDMA/LTE chip and Erikson is the leader in LTE infrastructure deployment. Apple is purportedly developing an LTE capable iPhone for Verizon. It’s not too late for S to get in on the action..hopefully they learned from the last time they passed on the iPhone. Although S will be behind Verizon in its LTE deployment, the trend to open networks will make this lead insignificant. Within 3 years Sprint could be on an equal footing with the big boys. The Dumb Cowards must act now. Otherwise say goodnight to Sprint.

Is History Repeating Itself?

Remember Gary Forsee’s upbeat outlook after seemingly strong results in early 2007? Surely the Dumb Cowards knew the company was teetering on the brink of disaster but made a conscious decision to sugar coat the numbers and present a rosy scenario. The stock price ticked upward and Forsee’s vision and leadership was finally bearing fruit. We now know it was all a house of cards that came tumbling down within months. The SEC reprimanded S and requested more detail in its forward looking statements in future SEC filings.

Let’s move ahead to Q1 2009. In its Q1 press release, Sprint announces that the “loss of 182,000 total net subscribers represents a sequential improvement of over 1 million and best sequential net change in total subscribers in Sprint Nextel history.” Wow, sounds impressive! But wait, the majority of the gains are from low revenue wholesale and prepaid services. So how did post-paid do? Minus 1.3 million subscribers compared to million+ net adds for all major competitors. The Trolls asks “what does all this mean?”

The Troll has done the math and in previous posts and has warned of liquidity issues post 2010. But let’s look at S own statements from its Q1 SEC filing.

“If the net losses of post-paid subscribers continued at the rate experienced in the first quarter 2009 indefinitely into the future, it would have a significant negative impact on Sprint’s financial condition, results of operations and liquidity in 2010 and beyond. The successful prepaid wireless offerings, as well as the successful wholesale offerings, will partially offset these effects, but are unlikely to be sufficient to sustain the Company’s level of profitability and cash flows unless we are successful in reducing the decline in post-paid subscribers…..
….If we are unable to reduce the rate of losses of post-paid subscribers in 2009 or 2010, it would have a significant negative impact on cash provided by operating activities and our liquidity in future years.”

So, while touting the success of the pre-paid and wholesale business is a nice diversion, the real story is the loss of post paid customers. We’ve long known about the exodus of iDEN customers, but starting last year CDMA has been losing customers at an alarming rate. Hesse continues to state that the decreases will improve in 2009, but what is he basing this on? Even the rosiest projections for the Pre will result in a net subscriber gain of 500k for 2009, a pittance compared to losses of 1 million+ per quarter. If anything, the trend in pre-paid services will continue to cannibalize S pre-paid services. And lack of capital investment is certainly not going to improve network performance.

So what’s the answer? Certainly, being boring is not good business at this time; business as usual will result in failure. Interestingly, the success of Boost and the outsourcing play with Erikson does offer a glimmer of hope. It will require a real nuke however, not a ploy like re-instituting Jeans Friday.

The End Game

Although S is on the path to bankruptcy in 2010-11, there are several ways it may go. One investment banker with certain knowledge has revealed the end may come sooner and more quickly than expected. It will become clear S will not be able to make its $3.8 billion 2010 debt payments by Q1 2010. A rival will seek to influence the restructuring so that shareholder may salvage 2-3 dollars per share. First, the debt issues will be consolidated and sold (or at least managed by a third party institutition). They will seek to spin-off the Boost product line, which is launched on the iDEN network, into a separate company, giving existing S shareholders a piece of the pie. What’s left of the CDMA network and it’s customers will be sold to a rival company in exchange for a small discount outstanding debt issues. It’s a win-win for everyone. The Dumb Cowards will get their golden parachutes, which they would lose if S goes to bankruptcy. Shareholders will get something, which is better than nothing, thus eliminating a proxy showdown. The rival will get 25 million customers and network assets, and the debt holders will get their payments. Sprint KC will no longer exist as we know it, but that is inevitable.

Why are people so infatuated with the Troll?

Why are people so infatuated with the Troll?
Because the Troll speaks the truth. The Troll was right on target with 1.3 million in subscriber losses and revenue declines. And stock price is still down 70% from last year. Not much to get excited about folks. On the contrary, a run up in stock price was expected around the release of the Pre. Let’s remember what happened last time a Sprint CEO spun a story and claimed success. Two years back, Forsee inflated subscriber numbers by going after sub-prime customers. Eight months later he was out of a job and S was on an irreversible decline. Sound familiar?

Let’s dig a little deeper into Dan’s spin. S lost 1.3 million subscribers Q1 2009 compared 1.1 million in 2008. All competitors added more that 1.1 million. His claim that the economy hurt Sprint more than other carriers is laughable. Churn has increased significantly. Unlike subscriber additions, which are seasonal, churn reflects customer satisfaction at a point in time and is less affected by season. Dan’s attempt to include open source revenue streams and sub-prime customers in its customer numbers are a deflection to avoid the overarching problem of continuing and rising subscriber defections and substantial declines in revenues.

For all investors, make sure you pull your money out before third quarter announcement. Stock price will not go higher than $6.75, EVER. The Pre will get a lot of attention, but it cannot compete with the iPhone for high-end gadget wonks and business users will not breakaway from their Blackberries. It’s a nice device, but not a breakthrough product. The initial sales will come mainly from existing customers. Revenues may actually decline as a result of the Pre due to the high subsidy S will pay for each for sold.

S is still on pace for bankruptcy in 2010. The Troll has interesting sources who have revealed how the end game will play out. Check it out at sprinttroll.blogspot.com
The Troll